Analysis of precipitation characteristics of South and North China based on the power-law tail exponents

• 来源期刊: 中国物理B（英文版）
• 关键词: the power-law exponents precipitation durative abrupt precipitation change
• 年，卷（期）: 2008,（7）
• 页码范围: 2745-2752
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Precipitation sequence is a typical nonlinear and chaotic observational series, and studies on precipitation forecasts are restricted to the use of traditional linear statistical methods, especially when analysing the regional characteristics of precipitation. In the context of 20 stations' daily precipitation series (from 1956 to 2000) in South China (SC) and North China (NC), we divide each precipitation series into many self-stationary segments by using the heuristic segmentation algorithm (briefly BG algorithm). For each station's precipitation series, we calculate the exponent of power-law tail (EPT) of the cumulative probability distribution of segments with a length larger than l for precipitation and temperature series. Our results show that the power-law decay of the cumulative probability distribution of stationary segments might be a common attribution for precipitation and other nonstationary time series; the EPT somewhat indicates the precipitation duration and its spatial distribution that might be different from area to area. The EPT in NC is larger than in SC; Meanwhile, EPT might be another effective way to study the abrupt changes in nonlinear and nonstationary time series.