Impact of technology advances on China's CO2 emission reduction

• 来源期刊: 科学通报(英文版)
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 二氧化碳排放量 减排技术 中国 大气二氧化碳浓度 全球气候变化 经济评估 排放总量控制 灵敏度分析
• 年，卷（期）: 2010,（19）
• 所属期刊栏目: ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 1983-1992
• 页数: 10页
• 分类号: X16 X773
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate change.To deal with these changes,the impact of reducing greenhouse gas(GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be assessed.In this paper,a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy(RICE),which is well known and accepted widely,has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction,assimilation and verification.Based on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050,the economic impact of the programs is examined.The results indicate that when technology advances,Chinese CO2 emission,climate loss,and the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature will all decrease.It is assumed that in 2010,the CO2 emission is 20%lower than in 2005,CO2 emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000,the accumulative CO2 emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC,and the atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04°C respectively from 2000 to 2050.The accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar,which only accounts for 6%of the global total benefits.However,the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance scenario.The decrease of the CO2 emission control rate is 1%in cooperation policy while 4.6%in non-cooperation policy,which would relieve China\''s burden in the control of CO2 total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO2 emission reduction.