An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Impact of Herd Mobility on the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal)

• 作者: Alassane Bah Jacques André Ndione Papa Ibrahima Ndiaye Python Ndekou T. Paul
• 来源期刊: 建模与仿真(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: Vector-Borne DISEASES RIFT VALLEY FEVER Multi-Agent System DISEASES Modeling Agent Based
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（3）
• 页码范围: 97-111
• 页数: 15页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

Vector-borne diseases are highly sensitive to environment and to environmental changes. Rift Valley Fever (RFV) is a mosquito-borne zootic virus associated with severe diseases in human beings and economic consequences to livestock sector. Animal and human movements have a fundamental impact on RVF transmission. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the use of mathematics and agent based models to represent and analyze the dynamic of RFV transmission. However, no previous study has taken into consideration animal herds’ mobility and precipitation factors to understand the disease spread. This limitation underlines the necessity to use computational model approach based on multi-agent system in the study of vector-borne diseases transmission and diffusion. In this paper, a multi-agent system combining conceptual model expressiveness is used to study animal herds’ mobility and the precipitation parameter impact on the Rift Valley Fever outbreak in Ferlo Barkedji in Northern Senegal. Simulation scenarios with various parameters, including rain quality, hosts, vectors, camp dispersal around ponds, etc., are unrolled. The different results we have obtained show that the evolution of the number of infected hosts and infected vectors depend on the degree of animal herds’ mobility and on precipitations. Our model provides a framework that permits predicting the spread of the disease associated with the mobility of animal herds.