Valuation effects in China: scale, structure, and its function in external adjustment

• 来源期刊: 中国财政与经济研究（英文版）
• 关键词: valuation effects financial adjustment net foreign assets
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（4）
• 页码范围: 64-83
• 页数: 20页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

At present China's foreign assets are mainly denominated in foreign currencies,while a large part of foreign liabilities are denominated in domestic currency.Under this situation,the appreciation of domestic currency tends to have negative effects on net foreign assets through the valuation effect channel.This article gives a quantitative estimation of the scale of valuation effects in China and the research results show that the valuation effects in China are negative in the 20 years from 1982 to 2012.Furthermore,the scale of valuation effects has been increasing,which has lowered the scale of China's net foreign assets.This paper also gives an estimation of the structure of the value effects,and finds that the volatility and the scale of asset price-related valuation effects are larger than that of exchange rate-related valuation effects.The results also show that the exchange rate has played a more and more important role in the fluctuation of value effects.Finally,this paper establishes an econometric model to value the function of valuation effects in the external adjustment and the results show that,during the period of 1981-2012,the role of valuation effects in China's external adjustment were quite limited,but since 2007,valuation effects have played a more and more important role.