Wind power prediction based on variational mode decomposition multi-frequency combinations

• 作者: Chen WU Gang ZHANG Hongchi LIU Jiangbin ZHANG Lei ZHANG Xia HUA Ye YAN Yongqing WANG
• 来源期刊: 现代电力系统与清洁能源学报(英文)
• 学科: 工学
• 关键词: Wind power PREDICTION VARIATIONAL mode decomposition MULTI-FREQUENCY combination PREDICTION Back propagation neural network AUTOREGRESSIVE moving AVERAGE model Least square support vector machine
• 年，卷（期）: 2019,（2）
• 页码范围: 281-288
• 页数: 8页
• 分类号: TM614

摘要

Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power integration. Because the traditional single model cannot fully characterize the fluctuating characteristics of wind power, scholars have attempted to build other prediction models based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD) or ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) to tackle this problem. However, the prediction accuracy of these models is affected by modal aliasing and illusive components. Aimed at these defects, this paper proposes a multi-frequency combination prediction model based on variational mode decomposition(VMD). We use a back propagation neural network(BPNN),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model, and least square support vector machine(LS-SVM) to predict high, intermediate,and low frequency components,respectively. Based on the predicted values of each component, the BPNN is applied to combine them into a final wind power prediction value.Finally,the prediction performance of the single prediction models(ARMA,BPNN and LS-SVM)and the decomposition prediction models(EMD and EEMD) are used to compare with the proposed VMD model according to the evaluation indices such as average absolute error, mean square error,and root mean square error to validate its feasibility and accuracy. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed VMD model is higher.