Temporal Dynamics in COVID-19 Transmission: Case of Some African Countries

• 作者: Alemtsehai A. Turasie
• 来源期刊: 传染病进展(英文)
• 学科: 数学
• 关键词: COVID-19 Reproduction Number Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Daily New Cases Time Series SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 in Africa
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（S1）
• 页码范围: 110-122
• 页数: 13页
• 分类号: O17

摘要

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global threat to public health and economy. The potential burden of this pandemic in developing world, particularly the African countries, is much concerning. With the aim of providing supporting evidence for decision making, this paper studies the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission through time in selected African countries. Time-dependent reproduction number (<i><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">R</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><i>_{<span style="font-family:Verdana;">t</span>}</i></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span></i></span></span></i><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) is one of the tools employed to quantify temporal dynamics of the disease. Pattern of the estimated reproduction numbers showed that transmissibility of the disease has been fluctuating through time in most of the countries included in this study. In few countries such as South Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), these estimates dropped quickly and stayed stable, but greater than 1, for months. Regardless of their variability through time, the estimated reproduc</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tion numbers remain greater than or nearly </span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">e</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">qual to 1 in all countries.</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Another Statistical model used in this study, namely Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model, showed that expected (mean) number of new cases is sig</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">nificantly dependent on short range change in new