Spatiotemporal patterns of the daily relative risk of COVID-19 in China

• 作者: CHENG Changxiu JIANG Yifan SONG Changqing SHEN Shi WU Yunfeng ZHANG Tianyuan
• 来源期刊: 地理学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（7）
• 所属期刊栏目: Research Articles
• 页码范围: 1039-1058
• 页数: 20页
• 语种: 英文
• DOI: 10.1007/s11442-021-1884-2

摘要

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic continues to threaten lives and the economy around the world.Estimating the risk of COVID-19 can help in predicting spreading trends,identifying risk areas,and making public health decisions.In this study,we proposed a comparative risk assessment method to estimate comprehensive and dynamic COVID-19 risks by considering the pandemic severity and the healthcare system pressure and then employing the z-order curve and fractal theory.We took the COVID-19 cases from January 19-March 10,2020 in China as our research object.The results and analysis re-vealed that(1)the proposed method demonstrated its feasibility to assess and illustrate pandemic risk;(2)the temporal patterns of the daily relative risk indices of 31 provinces were clustered into four groups(high-value,fluctuating-increase,inverted U-shaped,and low-stable);(3)the spatial distribution of the relative pandemic risk indicated a significant circular pattern centered on Hubei Province;and(4)healthcare system capacity is the key to reducing relative pandemic risk,and cases imported from abroad should be given more at-tention.The methods and results of this study will provide a methodological basis and prac-tical guidance for regional pandemic risk assessment and public health decision-making.