Dynamics of the COVID-19 basic reproduction numbers in different countries

• 来源期刊: 科学通报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（3）
• 所属期刊栏目: SHORT COMMUNICATIONS
• 页码范围: 229-232
• 页数: 4页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

The reproduction number,R,is the average number of sec-ondary infectious cases produced by one infectious case during a disease outbreak[1].When a population is totally susceptible,R becomes the basic reproduction number,Ro.It is a key parameter regulating the transmission dynamics of a pandemic[2].Ro pro-vides an indication of whether the introduction of disease will result in a localized burnout or signal the beginning of a pandemic that could move through all geographic scales[3].The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the epidemic eventually disappears if Ro<1.Whenever Ro>1,then an epidemic will occur and the infection spreads in the population,no matter how small the initial number of infected individuals.When Ro>2,a major outbreak is possible.When Ro>3,the emergence of a pandemic is generally considered to be inevitable[4].