Using Cellular Automata-Markov Analysis and Multi Criteria Evaluation for Predicting the Shape of the Dead Sea

• 作者: Maher A. El-Hallaq Mohammed O. Habboub
• 来源期刊: 遥感技术进展(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: DEAD SEA MARKOV CHAIN Analysis Cellular Atutomata Multi CRITERIA EVALUATION
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（1）
• 页码范围: 83-95
• 页数: 13页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

In order to make a rational prediction of the Dead Sea shape, data were prepared for suitability map creation using Markov Chain analysis and Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE). Then, Markov Cellular Automata model and spatial statistics were used in prediction and validation processes. The validation process shows a standard Kappa index of 0.9545 which means a strong relation between the model and reality. The predicted shapes of years 2020, 2030 and 2040 follow the same conditions from 1984 to 2010. The predicted areas of 2020, 2030 and 2040 are 610, 591 and 574 km2 which are considered a logical extension of the trend from 1984 till 2010. This study can be used as an environmental alert in order to keep the Dead Sea alive. Moreover, Markov-Cellular Automata model can be used to predict closed seas as the Dead Sea from remote sensed data.