How Accurately Contemporary Models Can Predict Monsoons?

• 作者: Clovis M. E. Santo Julio P. R. Fernandez S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna Sergio H. Franchito V. Brahmananda Rao
• 来源期刊: 美国气候变化期刊(英文)
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: CLIMATE CHANGE MONSOONS Seasonal CHANGE Tropical South AMERICA and India Rainfall Coupled General Circulation MODELS Projections of Future CLIMATE IPCC MODELS
• 年，卷（期）: 2018,（1）
• 页码范围: 97-113
• 页数: 17页
• 分类号: P4

摘要

Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.