Research Based on the Development Trend of World Language

• 作者: Hongmei Meng Hongzheng Yan Huan Li Jinping Liu Long Mao Man Xiao
• 来源期刊: 教育理论综述(英文)
• 学科: 社会科学
• 关键词: LANGUAGE communication MODEL GREY prediction Efficiency MODEL The Bayes' THEOREM Fussy comprehensive assessment
• 年，卷（期）: 2018,（4）
• 页码范围: 145-153
• 页数: 9页
• 分类号: G

摘要

Multicoloured languages play an irreplaceable role in the whole world as a useful communication tool. With the development of technology and science, varieties of languages have an ideal prospective tendency to evolution during the long and wonderful history. Will they be thriving or decaying? To begin with, aimed to gain general tendency about the quantity of languages' speakers, we employ the Grey prediction to capture associative curve which can be seen in Figure 1. From the trend of this vivid figure, we not only can come to the conclusion that the number of English and Chinese users tend to increase but also find that Spanish development will reach the period of stagnation. Secondly, for further improvement, we take birth rate, death rate, economic factors and the immigration into consideration and establish the language communication model. This model is deduced from the population prediction model and virus transmission model. After data normalization, the eventual curve indicates that current top-ten languages seem to be replaced by other languages. This transformation phenomenon also occurs among such top-ten languages. For instance, Hindustani will replace Spanish in the future when seen from Table 1. What's more, after predicting the migration pattern, we can draw the conclusion that some range of languages' dissemination has obvious change. As show in vivid Figure 14, we know English will popularize widely among neighboring countries such as Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Russia. Moreover, with regard to how to manage international offices' quantity and locations in the world, we construct the efficiency model with combination of the Bayes' probability theory and Fussy comprehensive assessment. As a result, we obtain 9 optimal plans to establish the international offices. Intelligible result is showed in Table 4 and Table 5. In short, our model is reasonable and feasible, which can accommodate to different situation.