Ecological Carrying Capacity Prediction of Huainan City Based on GM–BP Neural Network

• 作者: ANG Lin CHU Jinlong GU Kangkang JIANG Benchuan LI Jiulin
• 来源期刊: 景观研究：英文版
• 学科: 工学
• 年，卷（期）: 2016,（1）
• 页码范围: 35-40
• 页数: 6页
• 分类号: TU984.115

摘要

Evaluation of ecological carrying capacity is an important method of analyzing regional sustainable development, study on ecological carrying capacity is to settle the contradictions between resource and environment, and it is a significant basis for realizing regional sustainable development. This paper, on the basis of the academician Sun Tiehang’s 'unification of three' for the eco-city construction, established ecological carrying capacity evaluation indexes for the traditional industrial and mining city—Huainan City; and applied GM–BP neural network coupling model for the dynamic evolution and prediction of ecological carrying capacity of Huainan City in the future decade. The results showed that ecological carrying capacity index of Huainan would be 2.13 by 2025, higher than the loadable state 1, so the ecological carrying capacity would keep in the over-loaded level, but the over-loaded degree would be lower than the current. Carrying capacity of arable land, energy and water resources contribute greatly to the improvement of ecological carrying capacity, thus it is imperative to adjust this unreasonable and unsustainable ecological consumption relationship, enhance environmental protection awareness and high-efficiency utilization of resources, and take an energy-saving and intensive development path.