Study on Prediction Model of Number of Rainstorm Days in Summer Based on C5.0 Decision Tree Algorithm

• 作者: Chen Weiwei Shi Yimin Zhu Yunfeng
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究:英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: C5. 0 algorithm NUMBER of RAINSTORM DAYS PREDICTION model
• 年，卷（期）: 2019,（2）
• 页码范围: 56-60
• 页数: 5页
• 分类号: P457.6

摘要

Based on the data of daily precipitation in Lianyungang area from 1951 to 2012 and various climate signal data from the National Climate Center website and the NOAA website,a model for predicting whether the number of rainstorm days in summer in Lianyungang area is large was established by the classical C5. 0 decision tree algorithm. The data samples in 48 years( accounting for about 80% of total number of samples)was as the training set of a model,and the training accuracy rate of the model was 95. 83%. The data samples in the remaining 14 years( accounting for about 20% of total number of samples) were used as the test set of the model to test the model,and the test accuracy of the model was 85. 71%. The results showed that the prediction model of number of rainstorm days in summer constructed by C5. 0 algorithm had high accuracy and was easy to explain. Moreover,it is convenient for meteorological staff to use directly. At the same time,this study provides a new idea for short-term climate prediction of number of rainstorm days in summer.